On Jan. 22, 2026, the nominations for the Academy Awards, known as the Oscars, were announced. Out of 24 categories, the big three of the award show are Best Picture, Best Actor in a Leading Role, and Best Actress in a Leading Role.
In the past, another award show that highlights global television and motion pictures, the Golden Globes, has been known to predict the winners of the Oscars of that same year. For example, Michelle Yeoh won Best Actress in a Leading Role for both the Golden Globes and the Oscars for the same role in “Everything Everywhere All At Once” in 2022. The predictions can sometimes be accurate, but do not guarantee a nomination or a win for an Academy Award.
The first category being evaluated is Actor in a Leading Role. The nominees for this award are Timothée Chalamet in “Marty Supreme,” Leonardo DiCaprio in “One Battle After Another,” Ethan Hawke in “Blue Moon,” Michael B. Jordan in “Sinners,” and Wagner Moura in “Secret Agent.” Each of these actors were also nominated for a Golden Globe. Jordan and Moura were nominated for the Golden Globe for Best Performance by a Male Actor in a Motion Picture-Drama, which Moura took home. Hawke, DiCaprio, and Chalamet were nominated for the Golden Globe for Best Performance by a Male Actor in a Motion Picture-Musical or Comedy, which Chalamet ended up winning. Out of many critics’ opinions, they all acclaim Chalamet’s portrayal of Marty Mauser in “Marty Supreme.” I predict that Chalamet is going to claim this Academy Award, but I am definitely rooting for Michael B. Jordan, especially because he played two roles in “Sinners” as twins Smoke and Stack. National Public Radio’s Aisha Harris thinks Jordan put on a great performance.
“Jordan is at his very best here… As Smoke and Stack, Jordan has to make each character distinct yet in sync, and he mostly succeeds, inhabiting a thick Southern drawl that sings and swings effortlessly with each word and turn of phrase,” Harris wrote. “When they’re together, their physicality and interactions are visually seamless.”
The second category to discuss is Actress in a Leading Role. The women nominated for this award are Jessie Buckley in “Hamnet,” Rose Byrne in “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You,” Kate Hudson in “Song Sung Blue,” Renate Reinsve in “Sentimental Value,” and Emma Stone in “Bugonia.” The actresses nominated for the Golden Globe for Best Performance by a Female Actor in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy were Kate Hudson, Emma Stone, and Rose Byrne, with Byrne winning the award. Best Performance by a Female Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama nominees were Renate Reinsve and Jessie Buckley, with Buckley being awarded with the Golden Globe. Using these awards as a reference, I think that either Emma Stone, Jessie Buckley, or Rose Byrne could win this one.
The last award, Best Picture, is saved for last because it is arguably the most valued, especially by the directors. The 10 nominees for this award are Ryan Coogler’s “Sinners,” Josh Safdie’s “Marty Supreme,” Clint Bentley’s “Train Dreams,” Joachim Trier’s “Sentimental Value,” Kleber Mendonça Filho’s “The Secret Agent,” Paul Thomas Anderson’s “One Battle After Another,” Chloé Zhao’s “Hamnet,” Guillermo del Toro’s “Frankenstein,” Joseph Kosinski’s “F1,” and Yorgos Lanthimos’ “Bugonia.” “Sinners” is the story of twin brothers in the Jim Crow era who return to their home in Mississippi to confront evil vampires, which serve as an allegory for racism and colonialism. “Train Dreams,” showcases a man living in the Pacific Northwest working on the land as the world transitions to the twentieth century. “Sentimental Value” portrays two sisters handling the return of their narcissistic, famous filmmaker father. “The Secret Agent,” a Portuguese speaking film set in 1971, tracks Adolf Verloc, a spy pretending to be an anarchist shopkeeper, who is pressured by a non-native embassy to explode Greenwich Observatory. “One Battle After Another,” tells a story of a post-revolutionary soldier hiding and protecting his daughter from an obsessed federal agent. “Marty Supreme,” based on a true story, is about a professional table tennis player’s fight to get to be a professional, despite the setback of people laughing at his dream. “Hamnet,” based on the novel of the same name by Maggie O’Farrell, traverses through the story of how William Shakespeare and his wife Agnes grieve the death of Hamnet, their young son who tragically passed away, which was the inspiration of Shakespeare’s famous play “Hamlet.” “Frankenstein,” based on the classic novel by Mary Shelley, tells the tale of the creation of a monster commonly mistaken as Frankenstein, which is the name of his egocentric scientist creator, Victor Frankenstein. “F1” follows a Formula One racer who hadn’t raced in 40 years after a tragic accident that was almost fatal, who is signed to race for one of the worst teams in this league. “Bugonia” is about two men who obsess over conspiracy theories and kidnap a successful CEO, convinced she is an alien destroying planet Earth.
Film as Literature and English teacher Damon Uriarte thinks “Sinners” should win Best Picture.
“The great thing about Sinners is that it takes what the audience expects from a genre, and leans into the expectations we have for African Americans within that genre, and then subverts our expectations by giving the actors a powerful, positive role in an unexpected way,” Uriarte said. “Hollywood loves to reward movies with a great message.”
Using the Golden Globe winners, it is predicted that “Hamnet,” “One Battle After Another,” “Sinners,” and “The Secret Agent” have the best chances to win Best Picture. Combining ratings from online sources such as LetterBoxd, Rotten Tomatoes, and IMDb, “One Battle After Another” and “Sinners” have the highest chance of winning this award. “Sinners” was loved by the public, rated 94% on Rotten Tomatoes’ Tomatometer, 7.5/10 on IMDb, and 4.1/5 on LetterBoxd. These ratings have a good average of how the movie was received from the average consumer and the opinion of movie critics. “One Battle After Another” received a 4.2/5 on LetterBoxd, a 7.8/10 on IMDb, and a 94% on the fresh tomato meter. The roundup of these reactions to the film also have a really good average. “Hamnet” scored an 86% on the Tomatometer, an 8.1/10 on IMDb, and a 4.2/5 on LetterBoxd.
All of the nominees are strong contenders, but I predict either “Sinners,” “Hamnet,” or “One Battle After Another” will take the Oscar for Best Picture home. The Best Actor will hopefully be Michael B. Jordan in “Sinners,” and I’m betting that Best Actress will be Jessie Buckley in “Hamnet.”
